SHFE tin prices maintain a fluctuate downward trend amid macro pressure and a deadlock in supply and demand [SMM Tin Noon Commentary]

As of this morning's close, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract closed at 265,710 yuan/mt, down 19,400 yuan from the previous day's settlement price, a decline of 0.72%. The futures showed a fluctuate downward trend, with the intraday trading range narrowing to 266,000-267,000 yuan/mt. Market transactions were sluggish, and open interest slightly decreased, reflecting investors' cautious sentiment ahead of key macro events. Meanwhile, LME tin prices also faced pressure, closing at $33,440/mt overnight, down $35 (a decline of 0.1%), with the key support level shifting down to the $33,000 mark.

Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium tonight, and market expectations for an interest rate cut have become more divergent. Recent US inflation stickiness and the unexpected rebound in the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index have raised the probability of a September rate hike to 72%, pushing the US dollar index to a high of 104.8, which has suppressed the non-ferrous metals sector priced in dollars. Additionally, the US imposed a 50% tariff on 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products, heightening concerns over global trade barriers and casting a shadow over the demand outlook for industrial metals. Although domestic liquidity has been released and real estate stimulus policies introduced, business confidence is recovering slowly, and economic uncertainties are limiting the upside potential for tin prices.

In the short term, tin prices are expected to continue moving sideways within the 266,000-270,000 yuan/mt range, with limited room for both upward and downward movements. If Powell's speech conveys a "dovish" signal (such as emphasizing downside risks to the economy), it could trigger a technical rebound in tin prices; conversely, a "hawkish" stance would further strengthen the dollar's suppression, potentially pushing prices down to test the 265,000 yuan support. Caution is advised regarding the amplified volatility due to repeated news about production resumptions in Myanmar and the risk of a squeeze play under low LME inventory. In the afternoon, attention should be paid to the battle between long and short positions around the 266,000 yuan mark, with light and short-term trading recommended until there is clearer macro guidance